Risk premia in forward exchange rates: systematic or unsystematic?

International traders frequently use forward exchange transactions to hedge their cash flows in foreign currencies. A key issue is whether the forward rates are efficiently priced. There is evidence of time-varying risk premia in forward exchange rates. Are these risk premia systematic or unsystematic? This article uses a market model to explain risk, implying that the risk premium in the forward rate varies pari passu with the beta of the return to speculative forward positions. Assuming the unobserved risk premium is proportional to the forward premium allows testing the predicted relations; the data reject the joint hypotheses of the model and systematic risk. In terms of a simple factor model explaining the covariation of the forward premium, the risk premium, and the expected percentage rate of change of the spot exchange rate, the assumption that the forward premium and the risk premium are proportional can be relaxed without changing the empirical results.     

Retailers’ Price Positioning and the Motivational Profiling of Store‐Brand Shoppers: The Case of Spain

In recent years, retailers have worked to advance store‐brand strategies, leading to greater success and higher congruence with the retailer's positioning. In this new competitive context, this research aims to characterize store‐brand shoppers in terms of motivation and benefits sought, as well as analyze, on the basis of congruence theory, the moderating role of a retailer's price positioning on store‐brand shopper characterizations. The empirical study combines survey and household panel information related to leading retailers in Spain; the findings reveal that store‐brand shoppers are motivated by their price sensitivity, whereas they are less sensitive to service quality and name brands. However, the retailer's price positioning exerts a moderating effect on shopper profiles: In less price‐oriented retail chains, store‐brand purchases seem motivated less by price and more by quality, brand awareness, and brand reputation.     

Influence of Social Media over the Stock Market

This research analyzes investors’ activity through social media and these media's influence over the Chicago Board Options Exchange Market Volatility Index (VIX) using a logit model and a fuzzy‐set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). The logit results show that social media sentiment influences stock markets. Meanwhile, the fsQCA results show that the investors’ profile is important for explaining how social media influence the stock market. Particularly, holding period combined with experience in technical investors contributes to avoiding a raise in market risk, whereas for nontechnical investors message sentiment and experience form the combination that contributes to avoid a raise in market risk.     

The nonobserved economy in the European Union

To better understand the share of the nonobserved economy (NOE) in the European Union, especially on the PIIGS, we estimate, through the multiple indicators multiple causes model, the path between 1980 and 2013. The model includes (i) the tax burden (disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes), a proxy of regulation burden, the unemployment rate and self-employment as causes of the NOE economy; (ii) the GDP and the labour force participation ratio as indicators of the NOE economy. In particular, the estimated weight of NOE as a percentage of official GDP was always higher in the PIIGS group.     

THE IMPACT OF LABOR MARKET REGULATION ON EMPLOYMENT IN LOW‐INCOME COUNTRIES: A META‐ANALYSIS

Controversy over labor market policy often centers on achieving a balance between preventing worker exploitation, and avoiding loss of productivity or employment through excessive regulation. Although the literature documenting the impact of labor market regulation on employment is extensive, there is a dearth of evidence on the impact of such policies in low‐income countries (LICs). Since it is easier for workers, especially women, to slip into the informal sector in LICs, regulations are likely to have stronger impacts on formal employment in these countries (but lower impacts on unemployment). We systematically reviewed available research from countries that are, or were until recently, LICs. Most studies document that more stringent labor regulations are associated with lower formal sector employment and higher informal sector employment. We also conducted a metaregression analysis of the impact of minimum wages on formal and informal employment. After controlling for publication bias, higher minimum wages are associated with lower formal employment and a higher share of informal workers.     

Strategic planning of complex economic systems ∗

A major drawback of conventional models of the behavior of economic systems (and derived tools for policy intervention) is that the desire for tractability leads generally to a high degree of abstraction from reality. This article suggests an alternative, and arguably complementary, approach which engages specifically with economic complexity. The technique used is one of interactive spatial modelling over long time periods where the principle economic agents base decisions on incomplete heuristic information. For illustrative purposes the model has been calibrated on the basis of Senegalese data for 1981–91 and broad generic equations presented. The article argues that such a methodological approach holds out considerable advantages for strategic planning of sustainable economic systems. In particular it permits the direct engagement of noneconomic disciplines and client stakeholders in the planning process.     

Alternative Tourism Activities Management in the Argentinean–Chilean Great Lakes Corridor

Tourist and recreational use of natural and protected areas in Argentine–Chilean Great Lakes Tourist Corridor has experienced a remarkable growth during last years. Although total amount of use is still within these areas admission capacity, problems arise derived from intensive use in certain places, as well as visitors management concerns in considered critical areas. In this context, a research project was elaborated, approaching the problem of alternative tourism activites management, and focusing on aspects referred to their management and administration in the area of Binational Corridor. This paper refers to one of the dimensions considered in the project: alternative tourism activites demand in the Corridor. Starting from the classification of sustainable tourism niches done by Eagles (1994), a segmentation matrix was prepared and applied. Such analysis has important research, planning and market implications and is critical to the development of suitable services as well as to the design of appropriate management strategies and techniques for those institutions in charge of tourism planning in wilderness areas. Results are not only valid for those activities mentioned in the area of study, but also for other outdoor activities management in the context of North-Patagonian protected areas.     

The Impact of Frictions in Routine Execution on Economies of Scope

Research summary: Based on a detailed database of a beverages producer‐distributor that expanded its product variety by leveraging its logistic network, we show that product diversification generates economies of scope and also higher operational costs. The result is an inverted‐U relationship between variety and productivity: When the firm offers few additional categories, productivity grows, but as the number of categories rises, the costs of executing the operational routines increase rapidly and productivity falls. The negative effect on productivity increases if the added product category is more dissimilar to previous ones, and decreases with learning from operational experience. Our results highlight how frictions at the operational level can limit the benefits of diversification, even in the absence of other sources of diseconomies, such as increased coordination needs. Managerial summary: One of the prevalent reasons for companies to expand to adjacent product lines is attaining economies of scope. However, such growth strategy also generates operational frictions, even if the day‐to‐day routines do not appear to change at all. Product diversity is disruptive for routine execution, as it requires coordination and exception handling, and may ultimately overcome any efficiency obtained from growth. We estimate the relevance of such operational friction using data from a beverages distribution network. When product variety is low, additional categories do generate efficiency, but after reaching a given threshold, friction prevails. We find that operational friction increases when products are more dissimilar, but is attenuated when workers learn from their own and other's experience. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Rising Food Prices and Household Welfare: Evidence from Brazil in 2008

Food price inflation in Brazil in the 12 months to June 2008 was 18%, whereas overall inflation was 7%. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominantly wage‐earning agricultural labour force, our estimates include general equilibrium effects on market and transfer incomes, as well as the standard estimates of changes in consumer surplus. Although the expenditure (or consumer surplus) effects were large, negative and markedly regressive everywhere, estimates of the market‐income effect were positive and progressive, particularly in rural areas. Because of this effect on the rural poor, and of the partial protection afforded by increases in two large social assistance benefits, the overall impact of higher food prices in Brazil was U‐shaped, with middle‐income groups suffering larger proportional losses than the very poor. Nevertheless, as Brazil is 80% urban, higher food prices still led to a greater incidence and depth of poverty at the national level.